OCFA Live Fuel Moisture Report – Early June 2025

Sampling Sites – Black Star Canyon

Summary

May gray has given way to June gloom. With the bulk of seasonal precipitation in the rearview mirror, limited soil moisture is contributing to the steady seasonal decline in live fuel moisture. Measured values are now only a month behind average for this time of the year.

Overall, Orange County has received less than half of its seasonal average precipitation. Long-term forecasts do not indicate significant precipitation in the next 30 days. Consequently, live fuel moistures may quickly decline and finally catch up to “average” in the next month.

Except for steep, north facing aspects, the abundant annual grass crop has become almost completely cured. Expect these fine fuels to become available to carry fire when daily onshore wind aligns with direct sunlight, increased temperatures and diminished relative humidity.

We are now in the shoulder season where wildfire risk is classified as “low” early and late in the burn period, but “moderate” during the afternoon hours when fine dead fuels can briefly shed overnight relative humidity recovery. Currently, the live fuel component is counteracting large fire growth potential. As daylight hours peak in the coming weeks, expect this energy buffer to slowly erode and all fuel classes to incrementally become available to meaningfully contribute to both ignition and spread.

For additional OCFA information, please check out their website: https://ocfa.org/SafetyPrograms/FireDanger.aspx